After the rains move out, it’ll finally feel like summer in South Central Texas.
Severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening will be ahead of a high pressure system that will move into the area this weekend. High temperatures are forecast to exceed 100 degrees for the first time since August, with heat indices nearing 110 degrees Saturday and Sunday.
“We’ve had quite a bit of rain across the region the last few days — even going back a few months, we’ve been ahead on precipitation,” said Brett Williams, a National Weather Service meteorologist based at New Braunfels Regional Airport. “We’ll have pretty decent soil moisture, which will elevate heat indices over the next few days.”
Between 6 p.m. Tuesday and noon Wednesday, .54 inches of rain fell at the airport. The rains were expected to level off overnight Wednesday into Thursday, ahead of a round of possibly severe weather before high pressure moves in for the weekend.
“That typically means increasing temperatures,” Williams said. “It’s going to be hot — and the residual moisture coming from the tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico and the rains will give us the combination of hot temperatures and higher heat indices.”
The NWS is predicting Friday’s high to reach 95 degrees; 99 on Saturday and 102 on Sunday. Heat indices will reach 101 on Friday, 108 on Saturday and 110 on Sunday, Williams said.
The arrival of a cold front Sunday night will drop temperatures back down to seasonal levels — with highs reaching 94 Monday and 91 on Tuesday, he said.
“We’ll cool down considerably after that, when the high pressure will move off toward the west, and bring in normal temperatures until the middle of next week,” Williams said.
New Braunfels’ last 100-degree day was recorded Aug. 30. But before then, Williams warns of the possibility of severe weather Thursday afternoon and evening.
“The primary risks will be large hail and strong winds, and there’s a good chance of both,” he said.